AIAENG — earnings call

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Prepared remarks

Moderator · Conference Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, good day, and welcome to AIA Engineering Limited Q1 FY '26

Thank you.

The first question comes from the line of Bhoomika Nair from DAM Capital.

Please go ahead.

Bhoomika Nair

Yes, you mentioned in the end that there would be kind of a flattish volume.

I remember that in the previous call, we had mentioned about some growth and the benefits of the conversion efforts that we have taken to kind of start playing out sometime in this year, at least.

So in...

Sanjay Majmudar

I reiterated that, I'm sorry, I'm interrupting you.

I said, we are not giving any specific guidance about the growth in this year and our targets.

And I said that we'll probably come back to you by end of Q2, let us see.

We have not said that nothing will happen, but lot of efforts are going on, and I wanted to clarify that 100% from next year, we are on track.

This year we are waiting little bit more for a few outcomes.

AIA Engineering Limited August 13, 2025

Bhoomika Nair

Okay.

Fair point.

From a U.S. perspective, given that there will be the 50% duty, do you think our volumes will be at risk if it were to come to play?

Kunal Shah

Can you repeat last part?

I couldn't hear.

Bhoomika Nair

I was saying that if the 50% tariff was to come into play as anticipated, assuming no relief on that aspect for a minute, would that mean that our volumes would get impacted out there on the U.S. bit of volume?

Sanjay Majmudar

No. So Bhoomika, as I clarified two things.

One, this last round of 50% is reciprocal tariff and not sectoral.

Sectoral tariff was in February, it was increased to 25%, the whole world knows.

Correct.

Bhoomika Nair

Yes, yes.

Sanjay Majmudar

Today also my clients, my customers are paying 50% sectoral plus 10% CVD and they're continuing mine.

Obviously, the negotiations around the corner, will this continue and whether a part of it you will bear or not.

So that is a continuous dialogue, which our salespeople are doing.

And therefore, our supply as we see continue to go a little halting, but they continue.

Nobody has said we will not continue.

The people are also in the hope sooner rather than later there will be some -- we were noting of BTA happening.

People were hopeful that in BTA the tariff will come to a reasonable level.

As we all know, the whole world knows, this has now become a little political, more political rather than really economically, the rational decision-making process does not make any sense.

But as we speak, people are saying, that's all I can say at this point in time.

Bhoomika Nair

Okay.

Fair point.

Understood.

So the other thing is in terms of our China and Ghana, you mentioned that there are -- it is taking a little longer than anticipated because of the approvals, etcetera, and land acquisitions as such.

So what would be a reasonable time line to look at for - - if I understand correctly, China will be first operational followed by Ghana.

What would be the right time line to look at for that plant to be operational?

Kunal Shah

That's what I shared that our hope was to start with that initial land and approval this quarter, it looks like it's a little -- it's much longer drawn out than what we had imagined, right?

It's our first time going in there, which is where it looks like we will -- I'll be able to share a plan, hopefully, next quarter or fair chance it goes to the quarter after that.

And which will be exactly what happened.

I can't share 12 months from approval and the approval is maybe 15 months away, right?

So just give us a quarter more, we'll share a little more idea actual our teams out there, lot of work is going on, so that work in progress is there.

Bhoomika Nair

Okay.

Fair point.

Lastly, if I look at the margin profile this quarter has been quite healthy.

So anything that you can call out in terms of what attributed to this margin being sharply up?

Sanjay Majmudar

Okay.

So Bhoomika, one, if you knock off the treasury income, gain of INR19-odd crores, we are talking about, about 29% to 30% operating margin, which I definitely agree that this is AIA Engineering Limited August 13, 2025 slightly on the higher side, there are two factors.

One tax provision annual 2% it will be more, in this quarter it is less point number one.

Point number two, there is a good, very good product mix that has also given us a tailwind.

Now therefore, I would believe that on an operational margin this 29% or 30% cannot be read as a sustainable long term.

Of course, we are talking of 23%, 24% as a minimum.

I believe we want to stick to that as a very, very sustainable, it should be less than that.

We are doing better.

I believe we might do better, but let's stick it at that.

Bhumika Nair

Okay.

Fair point.

I will come back in the queue then.

Thank you so much and all the best.

Moderator · Conference Operator

Thank you.

The next question comes from the line of Priyankar Biswas from JM Finance.

Please go ahead.

Priyankar Biswas

Thanks for the opportunity and my first question is again coming back to the -- from the previous questions like -- this very high level of pricing that we are seeing on -- I mean, almost like a INR170 per kg, do you expect that to sustain at least in a very near term, I mean compared to forged it seems to be a very high level of premium.

So what is your take on it?

Kunal Shah

Priyankar I think realization when we have always maintained, it is not just a margin reflector, it's also the product mix that we do in a quarter.

You -- there are -- there is also the price pass- through with this quarter has seen freight reduction, some level of freight reduction, some level of raw material reduction.

So some of these costs have reduced, which will get passed on over a period.

So two things have happened this quarter, price, product mix leading to a little higher realization and lower cost.

And hence, you're seeing that price -- there is an abnormal margin this quarter, which we think will normalize over the next two quarters.

Priyankar Biswas

Okay, understood.

And also, if I may come back, like I remember in the previous calls, you used to highlight like significant opportunities in Latin America, particularly in copper.

So what is our progress there currently?

I mean what are the states or any prospects that we are looking for near term conversion?

Kunal Shah

I think we are status quo there like Sanjay bhai was explaining the previous participant, our efforts are on.

We are on it.

We are making all efforts towards it.

We remain excited and confident about it.

We hope to get back to growth stage soon.

There have been breakthroughs.

We are hoping that, that culminates into something meaningful that we can speak about.

We have decided to speak about it after we get that breakthrough rather than positing it about and when and how because it's been deferred for some time.

So we are hoping that it converts into a contract and a tangible order and hoping that gate opens up for further volume.

Priyankar Biswas

Yes, I hope so as well, let's say, within the next couple of years maybe you see some volumes.

And just last one question from my side.

Previous year in FY '25, in some of the calls, you had mentioned that in certain mining geographies, there were some excess inventory that was there AIA Engineering Limited August 13, 2025 of grinding media.

So that kind of led to sort of a destocking thing.

So is it behind us?

So has those volumes kind of resumed?

Kunal Shah

Yes, there are two, three different things that were happening, two customers going to a restocking, they're back to -- that volume looks to be back, that will normalize, yes.

Priyankar Biswas

That’s all from my side.

Moderator · Conference Operator

Thank you.

The next question comes from line of Devaan Shah from D.D Enterprise.

Please go ahead.

Devaan Shah

Sir, I'm an individual investor.

I have some two, three minor queries only.

Regarding the cash we are holding on the books, is it for Welcast because the Welcast buyback was not gone through.

So any plan to like utilize the same cash, which we are holding on the books?

Sanjay Majmudar

No, Devaan bhai, I think there is some confusion here.

Welcast never had a new buyback, it was a delisting attempt, which was not successful.

And that was a very, very insignificant amount actually.

So this cash has been conserved for quite some time, considering the fact that we are very, very optimistic about the tremendous growth potential that the business has.

And therefore, given the fact that at any point in time some or the other opportunity could unfold, we are a bit conservative and in the past also we have said that once we believe that the business has all the endeavors that we are giving for growth they are sort of stabilized.

We will look at options for reducing the level of cash.

But at this point in time, we agree we are admitting that we are maintaining a little higher level of cash that we want to do so more on a conservative basis given the potential that we have.

Devaan Shah

Okay.

So the other question is -- like can you just tell me like who is going to be over there for next 5 to 10 years for the management controlling because the owner, whose age is very much near to the like retirement or something like that.

So is there any follow-on plan also is there like we are going to get it from the management or you're going to get it like professional management outside of the company.

So any follow-up plans for that?

Sanjay Majmudar

Please understand one thing.

There is no question of any management outside of the company.

We are, in fact, professionalizing this for over last 3, 4 years.

There's a very proper succession plan strategy, which is under implementation.

The idea is that the whole management and the organization should run quickly on professional ground and all the efforts are on.

So there's no question of any outsider coming and running, etcetera.

But, yes, a proper succession plan is under implementation and it will be properly and formally implemented over a period of next 1, 1.5 to 2 years.

Devaan Shah

Okay.

That’s all from my side.

Thank you.

Moderator · Conference Operator

Thank you.

The next question comes from the line of Varun Jain from Dolat Capital.

Please go ahead.

AIA Engineering Limited August 13, 2025

Varun Jain

So my first question was on power and fuel costs.

So if I look at your power and fuel cost as a percentage of sales, from FY '20 it was close to 10% and then it has been falling, so FY '22, 9.2% and now FY '25, 7%.

So as the renewable power mix increases, where do you think this will settle?

Sanjay Majmudar

Renewable, see, at this point in time, we are, I think, about 35% -- 30% to 35% as the renewable level in terms of our actual credit that we are getting in terms of generation through wind and solar in our billing.

We are investing about -- we are putting another 100 -- total 60- plus megawatts, which will take us to about 100 megawatts.

So according to me, there should - - there is a very decent scope of further reduction.

It should settle 7%, 7.5%.

Varun Jain

Sir, 7% already in FY '25 only you reach.

So it should go close to 5.5% or 6%, right, in the next two years?

Sanjay Majmudar

Yes.

It should reduce further.

It will reduce further.

There will definitely be savings and you can take around 6% to 6.5%, you're right.

Varun Jain

Okay.

And my next question was, so your -- in this quarter, the margins were very good.

One of the reasons you told us was that product mix favoured realizations and the freight cost was low, but was there also a raw material cost impact, like, ferrochrome or alloys you got at a cheaper price?

Sanjay Majmudar

As always versus 100% pass-through.

So you are very right.

In a given quarter, if the prices have gone down, but our sales realizations are as per the previous agreed level, there would be a different push up on the margin.

However, in the next quarter, so I explained to Bhoomika one of the earlier participants that yes, there are two factors.

One is the knockoff, this other income, treasury income, etcetera.

So it around 30% at the operating level EBITDA, correct.

Now that is slightly higher than what we normally will do at about 27%-odd.

That is what the run rate with which we have been generally reporting.

There are two, one is our tax rate this quarter, if you have seen, it’s about 20% against normally about 23%, 20.8%.

So at PBT level -- PAT level you will see impact.

Second, there is a very clear-cut strong tailwind of the product mix.

So the bigger castings as we call them, its dispatch comes more and they are very profitable.

So therefore, there is a little bit of a push.

And then as Kunal explained, there will be a pass-through effect, which will come in the next quarter, which will normalize.

So if you see according to that, so we are okay.

We should look at the normal level of margin only rather than extrapolating this.

Varun Jain

Okay, sir.

Got it.

And my last question was, you have given some light on this, that you lost I think 30,000 tons of destocking volumes were lost.

So you said there were some recoveries out of that 30,000 tons.

How much have you recovered?

Kunal Shah

But, 30,000 tons was not a destocking account.

There was one customer where we lost some volume.

It was -- I think we will not be able to break down every single customer that way.

But the destocking that customer is back up, the volume is back up now.

Then there was a 8,000 tons, 10,000 tons, I think, 7,000 tons, 8,000 tons, 10,000 tons difference on that account.

AIA Engineering Limited August 13, 2025 There were other customers who have reduced purchases on that account.

I'm not sure what is the current level there.

But the billing process changed related to that one customer that's back to regular invoicing.

So that will reflect full year, will be the full potential, that reduction has been made.

Varun Jain

Okay, sir.

Thank you and all the best.

Kunal Shah

Thank you.

Moderator · Conference Operator

Thank you.

The next question comes from the line of Bhavin from SBI Mutual Fund.

Please go ahead.

Bhavin

Hi.

Good evening, Kunal.

Good evening, Sanjay Bhai.

Kunal Shah

Yes, sir.

Sanjay Majmudar

Yes.

Good evening.

Bhavin

Could you talk about the mill liners, we commissioned a plan, have you seen stabilization?

How is that ramping up and if you could also talk about, because that would have -- our strategy was to actually first get into the existing customers so that they know AIA, they know the AIA qualities that cross-sell opportunity was one that would have helped us.

Kunal Shah

Correct.

That's true.

Beyond the mill liner, as you know, we've also -- the metal mill liner, we've also added the rubber composite capability.

So I think as we went into the space as we understood the overall offering.

One is it has taken longer than what we imagined.

But having said that, it has -- this was our time where we have rightsized our offering.

We've done some amount of trials, right?

Customer went back and tell your references of this ore, of this metal or for this size of the mill.

So a lot of that was, who's going to give us the first trial.

Who's going to allow us a trial that allows us subsequent sale or subsequent size and con -- ore configuration?

I think that's what has taken us time.

I think, so if you -- Sanjay Bhai can speak more, but for today's Board meeting, for example, there was a 2-hour discussion just on the sharpness and the potential for the mill lining solution, right?

How it's all coming together.

And the solution is for us to sell liners and grinding media together.

So that's the customer we are looking at.

So, there were some customers where we had the chance to sell just lining, but we want to keep the capacity available because we are fully committed and believe in the solution where disproportionate benefits can accrue by using our design material, our design and our material of linings along with our grinding media.

Both are in sync to actually deliver the full solution that we are pitching to customers.

We are hoping that we have good news to share soon.

Sanjay Majmudar

Just to add to what Kunal said, what we are bringing on table now is something very unique, which very honestly mining industry has not seen before.

And that solution has been already tried and tested in a couple of mines with excellent results.

Based on that, we are now approaching on a combination of a solution which -- where cost becomes, I would say, AIA Engineering Limited August 13, 2025 secondary or tertiary.

Primary, it is the grinding efficiency, the throughputs and how we are doing a combination of different types of liner designs, very unique, which increases the grinding efficiency and the overall benefits which a mine gets is unimaginable.

I think that is what is giving us tremendous confidence.

Very soon, we should have some very good news to share.

That's all I can say at this point in time.

Bhavin

And what would be the utilization of the plant currently?

Kunal Shah

I think we have moved some of Odhav production also onto this plant.

But the utilization of the overall mill lining capacity would still be small.

I don't think we will be crossing 30,000 tons.

We will still be between 25,000 tons and 30,000 tons for the full year mill liners.

And capacity would be in addition in excess of 70,000 tons, 75,000 tons.

Sanjay Majmudar

30,000 tons, so both…

Kunal Shah

I mean, Odhav and…

Sanjay Majmudar

It is a little lower than around 40% to 50%.

Kunal Shah

Less than 40%.

Yes.

Sanjay Majmudar

Yes.

Bhavin

75,000 tons is the capacity and utilization...

Kunal Shah

Yes.

For some part of it is fungible, but I would say, we are doing between 25,000 tons and 30,000 tons of 75,000 tons capacity broadly.

Bhavin

Okay.

And just to understand directionally how different are the realizations for the mill liners versus the grinding media?

Kunal Shah

The selling price is, of course, a little more in middle liners, because the cost of the alloy is different and there is a lot more subsequent effort, right?

You need to do drawings, design, people need to travel for that, collect information, make wooden patents, then a sample piece gets made, then a finish rod, then they're post-treatment.

So the whole host of investment into patents and the engineering work that needs to be done before and after the product is made, is significantly higher, the cost on us, right?

So when you factor all of that, the selling price does go higher than grinding media.

But our margin on the selling price, I think, is largely comparable as a percent -- margin as a percentage is comparable.

Bhavin

Just trying to understand because if you see our weighted average, we've been doing $1,600, $1,700 a ton.

So I mean, just to get the differential in terms of realization?

Kunal Shah

But we also do vertical mill parts and that volume also shifts within vertical mill parts also, we do like six or seven products.

So prices vary from -- just to give you a sense from, let's say, INR180 to maybe INR400 a kilo, right?

Exactly because we do machining on some parts.

There are many other parts where metal dies have to be made or metal fabricated parts have to be made for the wooden pattern.

AIA Engineering Limited August 13, 2025 So the investment vary and the processing on the material varies and the effort as pre- production varies.

So that is where for us, it's sometimes difficult to break apart each piece and add up.

And I understand that INR170 is a high figure.

But like we said, that reflects a little bit of the higher dollar rupee and the product mix and the margin reflects some part of lower cost also.

Bhavin

Sure.

And when we were looking at the export data country-wise, there was a very sharp drop in the volumes to Australia from 37,000 to 40,000-odd we saw in '22, '23 to all about 15,000- odd us.

If you could just help us understand the reason for sharp drop to Australia?

Sanjay Majmudar

My request is, let us take this off-line.

Bhavin

Okay.

And the -- just last part when you said flattish volumes this year, there was some inventory drawdown that was their inventory correction by the customer, which was there about 8,000, 10,000 which we expect to normalize and there's some increase in the volumes that can happen from the mill liners as we see.

And despite that, the flattish volume guidance, is that, I mean, we just want to understand.

Kunal Shah

Bhavin Bhai, 8 or 10 also is flat for us.

The idea is that we have to get to 30,000, 40,000 tons and a 10 or a 15 or a 20 is still not volume increase that excites us.

I think Sanjay bhai is without having to nitpick into 5 or 7 or 12, he is just saying flat, saying it will vary your 10,000 tons, something else may go down, something else may come along.

Overall this year as we look going forward with new contracts coming in later in the year, factoring all of that, it looks like it will be a flat year.

And when you say flat, it will be between minus 5 and plus 15.

Sanjay Majmudar

Yes, Yes.

And I’m very clear I also say that by the end of fiscal quarter, we should have much better clarity on a few large contracts or assignments that we are working.

So I think you kindly wait for a quarter more.

I think we are working on so many other projects.

And with this novel approach, we are getting fantastic results.

So it's just a matter of time, very honestly.

That is why we said, otherwise, we would be not in a position to give at least this indication.

But I think it was an exciting response that we are getting and hopefully, we should be absolutely on track in terms of normal growth from next year.

And definitely, we are targeting some volume growth this year.

Bhavin

Sure.

Yes, thank you so much.

Moderator · Conference Operator

Thank you.

The next question comes from the line of Amit Khetan from Laburnum Capital.

Please go ahead.

Amit Khetan

Hi, Sanjay Bhai and Kunal Bhai.

So if I -- AIA faced challenges over the last 3, 4 years, right?

But if we just look at the industry volumes over the last 5 years, specifically mining, would you have a sense of how much the high chrome industry mining has grown in absolute terms?

Kunal Shah

High chrome is what our competitors are doing.

So volumes in high chrome are largely limited to what both of us are doing, right?

I don't know the number on the top of my head, but we'll just have to do that math.

There is no new player for sales coming down.

Exactly, not.

AIA Engineering Limited August 13, 2025

Amit Khetan

No, but the competitor would have also gained some share from you, right, by way of in countries where there are duty structures.

We are trying to understand how much is in place at the industry level.

Kunal Shah

What I'm saying is if volume has moved between them to us or ask to them, the industry has remained flat and there has remained still some total of what both of us are doing.

That's what we are seeing.

So that has grown to expense we have, basically.

If we have lost some volume, it's going to then generally, it would have gone to them or there's something the plant has shut or plant has reduced operation to whatever.

So the high chrome share is what volume of both of us added up would reflect.

Amit Khetan

Got it.

So broadly over the last 5 years at an industry level has been very limited conversions.

Is that what you're trying to see.

Kunal Shah

Possibly.

I mean, that's the total, whatever the math was to, yes.

Amit Khetan

Okay.

And secondly, when you talk about -- forget about this year, but let's say about on a normal year when you're talking about 25,000 to 30,000, 35,000 conversion, new addition in volumes, how much of that are you factoring in the new conversions?

And how much is just a regain of old volume, which now because of…

Kunal Shah

I think there will -- earth is that given our exposure -- see, we are not per se, a one trick pony.

There is one customer, one geography, one product line, right?

We are selling to more than 120 countries.

We're doing cement and mining.

Within mining, we're doing two or three old types.

So given all of that, there will always be macro.

What we are learning is an always a macro factor that will keep coming along in, putting some headwinds that we need to figure out and work through.

So what we are seeing is when we are seeing growth, when we are talking about growth, it is all new conversions from forged to chrome.

Now some volume that's gone away, it will come back.

That is basic arithmetic between us and the competitor whatever the macro situation may be.

We are not considering that when we're talking about growth coming back, all the growth figures that we want to hopefully share soon.

Sanjay Majmudar

So just to add, it's a fact that over last few years, you might not have seen a great amount of conversion.

This is a function of two, three things.

One, to the efficacy of our solution is universally accepted by the customer.

There is always a great deal of resistance on their part in converting due to a wide variety of reasons.

So what we decided that we must make it so potent that we leave -- that the customer would definitely fall for it.

So there is a local factor, there is a local competition.

Today, I'm saying that now with the mining liner related solution plus the DP-related benefit that we are offering, plus a very unique type of grinding media solution that we have got as a package it becomes so compelling that we have started getting very good results.

A couple of projects have shown extremely encouraging results and the clients says right now, they are in the process of negotiating some significantly large higher volume of orders, that has given us confidence that we have now approached many mines.

AIA Engineering Limited August 13, 2025 So what is happening is that we have also climbed up the learning curve in terms of our capability and our potential to break into mining based on efficiencies rather than cost.

Mining industry, each mine is typically INR50,000 crores kind of a company.

For them small volumes or small savings are not relevant.

What is relevant is if we offer something which is a game changer, that is where the whole conversion happens.

I think we have climbed up to manage curve and it's just a matter of time.

We would start seeing definitely better traction in the coming quarters.

Amit Khetan

Got it.

Thank you.

That’s very helpful.

Moderator · Conference Operator

Thank you.

As there are no further questions from the participants, I now hand the conference over to management for closing comments.

Thank you, and over to you, sir.

Kunal Shah

Thank you so much.

As always, Sanjay bhai and I remain available offline to clarify or speak on any other questions.

Thank you so much, and have a great evening, everyone.

Thanks.

Sanjay Majmudar

Thank you.

Moderator · Conference Operator

Thank you.

On behalf of AIA Engineering Limited, that concludes this conference.

Thank you for joining us, and you may now disconnect your lines.

Thank you.