JKTYRE — earnings call

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Prepared remarks

Moderator · Conference Operator

MR. MITUL SHAH - DAM CAPITAL ADVISORS LIMITED JK Tyre & Industries Limited May 22, 2024

Ladies and gentlemen, good day, and welcome to the JK Tyre & Industries Q4 FY '24 Conference Call hosted by DAM Capital Advisors Limited.

As a reminder, all participant lines will be in the listen-only mode, and there will be an opportunity for you to ask questions after the presentation concludes.

Should you need assistance during the conference, please signal an operator by pressing star and then zero on your touchtone phone.

Please note that this conference is being recorded.

I now hand the conference over to Mr. Mitul Shah from DAM Capital Advisors Limited.

Thank you, and over to you.

Mitul Shah

Thanks, Mike.

Good afternoon all.

Thanks the management for providing us this opportunity.

On behalf of DAM Capital, I would like to welcome you all to the Q4 and year ended FY '24

Moderator · Conference Operator

We have the first question from the line of Bharat Bhagnani from Living Root Analytics.

Bharat Bhagnani

Yes.

So my first question is with regard to the tax rate in FY '24, '25.

So Sanjeev, to what tax rate are we going to target this year, current financial year?

Sanjeev Aggarwal

So this will be 25%.

We will be moving into the new tax regime in JK Tyre from 1st of April '24.

Bharat Bhagnani

Including Cavendish, right?

Sanjeev Aggarwal

In Cavendish, the new regime is already applicable.

We had adopted earlier.

So, both the companies will be under 25% tax regime.

Bharat Bhagnani

Okay.

And you had mentioned the net debt movement, net debt amount, but can you tell me the gross debt movement and how much was repaid during the year?

And how much is scheduled for repayment in the current financial year?

JK Tyre & Industries Limited May 22, 2024

Sanjeev Aggarwal

So, the gross debt was about INR4,800 crores last year.

And we have paid almost about INR360 crores this year, and this has come down to INR4,450 crores.

Bharat Bhagnani

And current year also similar amount will be repayable?

Sanjeev Aggarwal

Yes.

INR350 crores plus amount is repayable in this financial year '25.

Bharat Bhagnani

Okay.

Anshuman ji, I just had a question regarding the sales growth in the current year that we managed to just do around 2% to 3% worth of sales growth.

This is including some amount of pricing growth as well.

So I mean, have you lost out on volumes in terms of volume growth?

Anshuman Singhania

No, on a year-on-year basis at consolidated level, we registered a growth of 3% wherein volume growth was 4%.

So we have definitely not lost on the volume growth.

In fact, we have really inched up on all the categories.

Bharat Bhagnani

Okay.

So, pricing, may be pricing has remained the same.

So this year, I mean what kind of growth are we targeting this year in terms of sales, now that we have additional capacities also?

Anshuman Singhania

So we are targeting 8% to 10%.

Bharat Bhagnani

This is including volume and pricing, both?

Anshuman Singhania

Yes, this is 8% to 10%, will include both volume as well as price and the industry is expected to grow about 6%.

Bharat Bhagnani

Okay sir, in the light of recent key raw materials like rubber, and even crude being volatile, but rubber actually having increased to what it is right now at about INR182 per kg odd.

So do you see that impacting margins for this year and next year, in an environment where we may not be able to increase the prices of the products?

Anshuman Singhania

No, you see that the average raw material basket has remained flat on a Q-on-Q basis and we are expecting the basket to rise about 3% to 4% in Q1. So, we are not looking at impact on margin.

Bharat Bhagnani

Which means you will pass on the price.

Anshuman Singhania

Yes.

We are looking at taking a price increase in the range of 1.5% to 2% across categories in Q1 and rest, we are looking at improving our premiumization mix and operating efficiency.

Bharat Bhagnani

Sir, have we taken any price hike yet?

Anshuman Singhania

Yes.

We have taken price hike in ongoing quarter in range of about 1.5% to 2%.

Bharat Bhagnani

Okay, in which category, sir?

In which -- the tyre category or is this across?

Anshuman Singhania

Across the category.

JK Tyre & Industries Limited May 22, 2024

Moderator · Conference Operator

We have the next question from the line of Mumuksh Mandlesha from Anand Rathi.

Mumuksh Mandlesha

Congratulations on the good results and on the Chairman video and the MD award, sir.

In terms of distribution, how do you see the expansion of the current 750-plus exclusive stores and the reach of 1,300 fleet operators expansion ahead, as that is driving the outperformance over the industry for the company?

Also, what would be the volumes coming from the brand store currently?

And in terms of profitability, how it would we be differing from the normal channel?

Anuj Kathuria

So, regarding the brand shops, especially the steel wheels and the truck wheels, we expanded the brand shops by almost 150 brand shops are added.

We are now close to 800-plus brand shops we have.

In PCR segment, almost 50% of our sales are now coming through these brand shops and it also helps us to get better connect with the customers.

We are offering the entire solutions through these brand shops.

We further intend to add roughly around 200-plus brand shops in the FY '25 which will further improve our brand salience and brand image.

So we are working towards this.

So that was the one question.

What was the other question that you had?

Mumuksh Mandlesha

In terms of fleet operators, sir, how is that changing next year?

Anuj Kathuria

So, our engagement with the fleet operators is improving year-on-year.

In fact, this year also, we have added some of the marquee fleets to our account.

Not only fleet, we are adding very large accounts in our mobility solutions business.

Overall, there are around 1,800 plus fleets with 100+ trucks and we are connected with almost 1,300 out of these 1,800 fleets.

So, we expect that further consolidation of fleets is likely to happen and therefore, this will give us a definite advantage going forward.

Mumuksh Mandlesha

Okay and how would be the profitability of the brand store, sir?

Would it be different from the normal channel or it's a similar margin profile of product sales we get from the brand shops?

Anuj Kathuria

Brand shops are definitely better in terms of profitability because they are able to make a value sales pitch to the customers.

They also provide services, which is also a revenue stream for them.

So overall, brand shops who are doing a consistent volume depending on the size of the store.

Mumuksh Mandlesha

Got it, sir.

Just a question to Sanjeev sir.

In Q4, sir, what was the price hike taken?

Any marginal price increases taken in Q4 quarter, sir?

Sanjeev Aggarwal

So as Anshuman ji just mentioned, there were some price hikes which was taken in Q4 in selective SKU’s.

But major price increase was taken again in Q1 of FY '25.

Mumuksh Mandlesha

Sir, continuing on this part, considering the further cost inflation, how much further price hike we will require to take to pass on the impact also the EPR impact?

And any thought by when that price hike would come, sir?

Sanjeev Aggarwal

You are asking for the year as a whole or for the quarter 1?

JK Tyre & Industries Limited May 22, 2024

Mumuksh Mandlesha

So, I mean there would be some inflation impact on the gross margin.

And maybe there was further addition in Q2 also.

So, on total, how much for the price hike we required to pass on the impact?

Anuj Kathuria

I would say that as I said that on a quarter-on-quarter basis, right now, there was a flat increase in raw material, but quarter, we are expecting that in the quarter 1 of FY '25, 3% to 4% increase.

So there, we have already increased our price to 1.5% to 2% on the finished goods across the category for quarter 1.

And we will be governed by the competitive prices as it plays out for the rest of the quarter.

The other thing which you, I think, asked was the EPR.

So we have already started charging per tyre basis on the invoice to the customer.

So this will be a recovery or charge to the customers, which we're going to recover.

Mumuksh Mandlesha

So that would cover the all the impact for EPS for next year, right, sir?

Anuj Kathuria

Yes.

Yes, it will.

And this was just calibrated depending on what is the cost of the certificates that we will be purchasing.

So this will be a pass-through cost.

Mumuksh Mandlesha

Got it.

And sir, is this phenomena across the industry, we are seeing?

Or this is something JK has initiated in terms of pass-through the cost?

Anuj Kathuria

Under EPR?

Mumuksh Mandlesha

Yes.

Anuj Kathuria

So, the 2 companies have started, but it is applicable for across the industry.

Mumuksh Mandlesha

Got it, sir.

Yes.

And just lastly, on Mexico, can you share what kind of a revenue outlook for next year, sir?

A.K. Bajoria

As I said that we have taken some measures and we hope to better our revenue and also, therefore, our bottom line, the profitability.

Moderator · Conference Operator

We have the next question from the line of Jaimin Desai from Emkay Global.

Jaimin Desai

Congratulations on maintaining profitability and the expansion and return ratios.

My first question is around demand outlook.

You mentioned 8% to 10% growth in top line expectation for this year.

Can you provide some color in terms of splitting it up in terms of volumes and pricing?

Earlier, I believe you indicated for double-digit growth in the India replacement segment.

Does that expectation still hold?

Anuj Kathuria

So, your voice is little shaky could you just repeat your question clearly.

JK Tyre & Industries Limited May 22, 2024

Jaimin Desai

Okay.

Yes.

Sir, my question was regarding the domestic replacement demand.

Earlier, we have indicated double-digit expectation from this category?

Does that expectation continue to hold?

Do we still expect double-digit volume growth in this segment for this year?

Anshuman Singhania

It will be varying from segment to segment.

In PCR, definitely we expect a double digit in the replacement market.

CV may be being a high single-digit growth.

But overall, I think so it would be somewhere between that 8% to 10%.

Jaimin Desai

Understood and also just to check whether I've got the understanding, right?

So you mentioned that there were very marginal price hikes in the fourth quarter upon which you've taken a 1.5% to 2% increase already in the first quarter.

And there will be some hikes going forward as well, and that would entirely cover the higher EPR liability as well as the -- whatever RM cost increase has been there.

Is this understanding correct, sir?

Anuj Kathuria

I'll clarify.

See, when we said quarter 4, we have taken some price increases on select SKUs.

In quarter 1, we have done 2 things.

One is that we have taken a price increase of 1.5% to 2% on account of raw material increase.

Secondly, we have also started recovering the cost of the EPR which is based on the per kg on per tyre basis.

The EPR will continue as a cost recovery measure.

Jaimin Desai

Understood.

That is very clear.

Just one final question.

In this quarter, we have seen a decline in the EBIT margin for Cavendish on a quarter-on-quarter basis.

Is this entirely because of the EPR provisioning?

Or is there some other reason also?

Sanjeev Aggarwal

You are talking about the operating margin reduction?

Jaimin Desai

Yes, for Cavendish on quarter-on-quarter basis.

Anuj Kathuria

Okay.

See, one is that, yes, there was a EPR charge that came in, in quarter 4, which was not there in quarter 3 or any of the other quarters.

There was a slight reduction also in the top line.

That was mainly on account of certain OEM in the CV space, where the demand has suddenly tapered off during March.

Moderator · Conference Operator

We have the next question from the line of Krupashankar from Avendus Spark.

Krupashankar

So I have two questions.

Just wanted to get a sense of what would be your total capacity in India across TBR, PCR 2-wheeler, specifically in India?

Sanjeev Aggarwal

So, the total capacity, as we have also shown in our investor presentation at 3.4 mn. for all the companies, including Tornel in Mexico and the Cavendish and JK Tyre.

This is not readily available with me at the moment.

Please refer investor presentation

Krupashankar

I understand.

I'll refer to that.

The second piece of it, just wanted to also get a sense on the market share across segments in India, across perhaps truck and bus PCR and 2-wheeler?

JK Tyre & Industries Limited May 22, 2024

Sanjeev Aggarwal

This is really difficult to calculate because the data from all the companies are not easily available.

So we have not been calculating the market share, but we can tell you that we are the market leader in the TBR segment.

On overall commercial vehicle tyres and also specifically on TBR in the domestic market, we are the no.1.

Krupashankar

Okay.

And this is across OE and replacement is what you're saying?

Sanjeev Aggarwal

Yes, domestic.

Krupashankar

Okay.

All right, sir.

On the outlook part of it, just wanted to quiz whether -- on the CV side, are you seeing the traction on replacement picking up primarily on the sentiment?

Or is it more of a pricing-driven push to boost volume, sir?

Anuj Kathuria

Yes, in the CV market, we are seeing traction in the replacement market.

But however, in the OEM, we are seeing some flattish trend.

But we are expecting that this will also pick up by the second half of this fiscal year.

Moderator · Conference Operator

We have the next question from the line of Nirav Seksaria from Living Root Analytics.

Nirav Seksaria

Sir, you said the capacity utilization for FY '24 was at 86%, and we are going to grow at 8% to 10%, which takes us to a utilization of around 90%.

So why are we setting up additional capacities rather we can use the amount to repay our debt, gross debt and reduce it?

Anuj Kathuria

When we talk about capacity utilization 86% is full year utilisation.

But if you go into quarter by quarter or month by month depending on the seasonality.

Also, the OEM demand is not the same throughout the year.

So there are months where we utilize the capacities even at a higher level.

So, this is not something that we can say that you can just rather than going for the expansion, you go for deleveraging.

There is a certain headroom also that is always better to have.

So overall, I think so, if any company, any organization is having a capacity utilization in excess of 90% is actually a very good number to have.

Nirav Seksaria

Sir, could you give me the breakup of capacity like utilization across TBR and PCR?

Anuj Kathuria

The other thing is that if we take this number that we quoted is the entire capacity utilization, but the radial capacity utilization is definitely better as compared to bias capacity.

But if I take the TBR utilization, it is definitely in the 90% and PCR is actually in excess of 95%.

Sanjeev Aggarwal

And also, I would like to add, it takes about 2 years to add to capacity.

Lead time is high.

This is a time taking process.

Anuj Kathuria

We expect that the market will grow at a CAGR of 5% to 6%.

Sanjeev Aggarwal

Yes.

And if we can capture more, then why not.

Nirav Seksaria

And sir, what's the outlook on the VV cycle?

JK Tyre & Industries Limited May 22, 2024

Anuj Kathuria

So commercial vehicle, the vehicle side, what we are getting the inputs is that demand will be flat in H1, but it will be better in H2.

Nirav Seksaria

And that will be easily from OEM side?

Anuj Kathuria

Yes, yes.

Replacement, we already clarified.

Replacement demand is holding up.

Nirav Seksaria

Okay.

And sir, just one last question.

Could you tell us the expected -- the raw material basket prices, which is synthetic rubber, carbon black, which the company paid in Q4?

Anshuman Singhania

As, I said that overall basket quarter-on-quarter was flat, we are expecting the raw material basket to increase by 3% to 4% for quarter 1.

Nirav Seksaria

Okay.

So sir, in Q1, we are seeing -- expecting a 3% increase, which will be via which input?

Anshuman Singhania

Mostly natural rubber, followed by some small increase in other components.

Nirav Seksaria

And sir, at what level of crude are we really comfortable at?

Anshuman Singhania

Up to 80 - 85 range.

Anuj Kathuria

While there is a correlation between crude and certain derivatives, but there is no direct correlation as such, and it happens at a lag.

So it's very difficult to kind of base your decisions on that.

Moderator · Conference Operator

We have the next question from the line of Chirag Jain from Emkay Global.

Chirag Jain

Sir, would you like to spend some time on the new marketing campaign that we have started, Desh Ka Tyre.

And obviously, in terms of how differently we are positioning our products, the overall, let's say, the reviews that you would have received so far in terms of improving the brand perception.

Obviously, this is not in isolation.

We are also expanding capacity on PCR and also want to expand or increase the share of SUV tyres.

And overall, obviously, this sort of implication in terms of the growth profile and also in terms of margin profile.

So maybe some more, let's say, insights on this marketing campaign per se?

Anshuman Singhania

Thank you, Chirag.

Last year, we have been able to come out with very innovative product lines, which is a smart tyre and puncture guard, which we had in ATL presence and BTL presence all throughout in India.

That was a very strong communication including on the digital front as well.

This particular advertisement, we are very proud off and it has become like a sort of a theme, national anthem type of a theme song for viewers and our followers.

This also represents our whole range right from 2/ 3-wheeler tyre to a farm tyre to LCV tyres to passenger tyres right up to truck and bus tyres and even off-the-road tyres.

So, it’s is a very holistic ad which depicts our connect to India and from the North, South, West, all corridors.

This ad has been live now on air in all the major channels and plus a lot of song in dance in terms of its publicity.

So I welcome all of you to please have a look at this ad.

JK Tyre & Industries Limited May 22, 2024 The other part of your question was how are we increasing our margins.

Well, in the passenger car radial, as we've been always saying that we have been increasing our premiumisation by moving on the lower rim sizes to higher rim sizes tyres.

So above 15-inch, 16-inch and 17-inch sizes, this is definitely adding profitability to our books.

Similarly, also even in the truck radial, our innovative products like XF, XM and XD has also added our premiumization mix in that story.

So that is also catching a lot of acceptability in the market, and we would like to take this story forward.

Chirag Jain

So over the medium term, would it be fair to assume that our market share gain story or the outperformance vis-a-vis industry should continue?

And even on the profitability side, irrespective of short-term commodity swings, but on a medium-term basis, there would be upward bias to our profitability, given the entire focus on premiumization?

Anshuman Singhania

Yes, the premiumization would definitely have an insulation effect to offset the rise in raw material prices.

Moderator · Conference Operator

We have the next question from the line of Nirav Seksaria from Living Root Analytics.

Nirav Seksaria

Sir, just a follow-up, what are we doing to increase the brand visibility like CEAT has partnered up with IPL.

Recently, MRF has also taken Virat Kohli for an advertisement.

So sir, why don't we do something similar to increase our brand visibility by taking up any celebrity or a known personality?

Anshuman Singhania

It's a very interesting question.

Our core has been a motor sports and we have spent decades in around motor sports.

We have recently organised run on Dal Lake in Srinagar which was a very big event.

We have also done similar kind of event in Bangalore recently.

We are shortly going to be doing some more interesting events in Mumbai as well.

We have also done in Arunachal Pradesh some of the motorsports rally.

We have been actively participating in big events in terms women rally.

Anuj Kathuria

Having said motor sport is still the main thing.

But beyond that, our social media, we have leveraged the social media presence and just latest what we call as the JK anthem has also given a lot of positive feeling, the emotional connect with many of our large customers on Hindustan Jab Mile Hindustan Se.

This campaign is also being very well appreciated amongst our dealer, channel partners, among the customers.

So, I feel that we are doing the right things on the brand side.

Nirav Seksaria

Sir, but I totally get that, but motor sports is quite niche as a category indiscernible] of the category.

And if we get on to celebrities and famous known personality that will skyrocket our brand in advertisement and normally public will also be able to associate with a brand in a much better manner, which will increase the brand awareness.

Anshuman Singhania

Thank you, every company has its own philosophy of endorsements.

In the past, we continue to do brand communication by way of endorsements through racers.

Not only male, but we have JK Tyre & Industries Limited May 22, 2024 also promoted a lot of known women rallies also.

So, this is completely a company’s decision & policy.

Moderator · Conference Operator

We have the next question from the line of Arvind Kedia from MDK & Associates.

Arvind Kedia

Sir, you mentioned about motor sport and obviously, JK Tyre has been one of the very few companies that have been promoting motor sport in India.

But recently, there have been rumours that MotoGP might not come back to India.

And like F1 is also we don't know it hasn't come to India for the past -- more than 10 years.

So with the declining interest in motor sport, what are your views on that?

And like how are you going to increase the audience's demand in that field?

Anshuman Singhania

You see F1 is not the only motor sports which is the front runner.

But all over the world, including in India, there are several other formats.

Track race is one format where we are actively participating including rallies on hilly terrains and circuit racing etc. There is lot of following amongst the motor & sports enthusiast.

We are very proud that we are leading this path in attracting the talents.

Women rally is another part, which is also very much at our core, where we nurture the talent.

Moderator · Conference Operator

I would now like to hand it over to the management for closing comments.

That was the last question.

Anshuman Singhania

Thank you so much for joining us today.

We hope that we have clarified all your doubts.

Good day.

Moderator · Conference Operator

On behalf of DAM Capital Advisors Limited, that concludes this conference.

Thank you for joining us, and you may now disconnect your lines.