SARDAEN — earnings call
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Prepared remarks
Moderator · Conference Operator
Ladies and gentlemen, good day and welcome to the Sarda Energy & Minerals Limited Q2
Thank you very much.
We will now begin the question and answer session.
The first question is from the line of Vikas Singh from Phillip Capital.
Please go ahead.
Vikas Singh
Sir would it be possible for you to quantify the losses because of this power plant shut down and the production impact because of the factory realigning?
Pankaj Sarda
Very difficult but we can definitely work out and let you know, not available immediately.
Vikas Singh
So that’s why our product mostly towards sponge we have sold less of the wire rods and billets?
Padam Kumar Jain
Yes.
Vikas Singh
Has the situation normalized or it’s still more or less similar because of the extended monsoon or so?
Pankaj Sarda
Fully normalized.
Vikas Singh
Okay.
And sir if may can give us the product specific realization which previously you used to share like pellets, sponge, billet realization for this quarter?
Padam Kumar Jain
The pellet sale realization was about 6,500, sponge iron it was 16,300 steel billet it was 29,000 wire rod 34,000 and wire 36,500.
Vikas Singh
Okay.
And sir how is the current prices vis-à-vis this last quarter because I believe most of the correction would have the impact of that come with a lag effect for this quarter?
Pankaj Sarda
Yes, there has been a further maybe fall in the steel billets average realization was 29,000 now it is in the range of present prices are in the range of 26,500 or so.
That is materially impacted rest I think in pellet also the average relation was 6500 now prices are hovering around 5800
Vikas Singh
Okay.
And sir my one more question with regards to your Sikkim project.
So, when the project capacity has been raise to 115 megawatt in terms of CAPEX intensity has anything changed or more or less we would be able to do in the same CAPEX?
Padam Kumar Jain
No, it will be within, the increase in capacity will not materially affect the CAPEX.
It was major expenditure on the civil side so that we already built in while designing it.
Sarda Energy & Minerals Limited November 13, 2019
Vikas Singh
Okay, sir just one clarification in your presentation you have said that Sikkim project to be commissioned in FY20 but in commentary I believe that Mr. Sarda has noted that it is doing to commission next year?
Pankaj Sarda
In the first quarter, initially we had projected for FY20 it is explained in our call conversation there were some delay on account of excessive rains.
So that has affected some work progress.
Vikas Singh
Sir so what percentage of work is completed because this project has been delayed for many times.
So, just wanted to understand how confident you are that on 1Q FY21 you would be able to commission the project?
Pankaj Sarda
Now we are on the end of the completion of the project.
So that is already been proved.
Because now this lining work etc. is going on and some erection work is going on.
So now it can’t vary materially it cannot.
Vikas Singh
Okay, and sir just one last question if I may ask.
Sir this LOI for the long term PPA which we have received, if you can just explain a little bit more that the number of years or the pricing which we are looking for etc.?
Pankaj Sarda
No, pricing will be determined by the regulator commission these are basically approved by the regulator.
Vikas Singh
Okay so any expectation of us?
Pankaj Sarda
Simply if you see now because it has become a renewable energy project.
So, in normal course also you will get whatever rate is approved on the worst case scenario you consider although it will be based on the project specific approval.
So it will be on the higher side but as a conservatively also if you consider it will be basically average full cost and REC cost.
So in any case that should not be less than INR 5.50 or somewhere INR 5.50 to 6.00.
Vikas Singh
Okay.
And sir how much we have spent till date on Sikkim?
Pankaj Sarda
Sikkim I think we have spent more than 1200 crore approximately.
Vikas Singh
So what is the remaining CAPEX which we expect to do in the next one year?
Pankaj Sarda
Remaining CAPEX is somewhere about 250 crore.
Moderator · Conference Operator
Thank you.
The next question is from the line of Tarang Bahnushali from Yes Securities.
Please go ahead.
Tarang Bahnushali
Yes, sir what would be the ferro alloy average realization and do you think that we will see some pullback in this price in the near term?
Sarda Energy & Minerals Limited November 13, 2019
Pankaj Sarda
Prices in the last quarter for ferro manganese was 73,000 and in case of silico manganese it was 67,000.
Tarang Bahnushali
Okay, and do you think that things will reverse?
Pankaj Sarda
60% and 65% of silico manganese there cannot be a direct representation on the price side because what average realization is basically for a multiple grid.
If you go for the 60 grade domestic prices will definitely soften present prices are somewhere about 58,000.
And raw material prices also corrected substantially.
MOIL has also reduced prices from this month 20 to 25% in the raw material cost.
Tarang Bahnushali
Okay.
So do you think that demand for the ferro alloys is increasing from China or some things or we are just flat on the Y-o-Y?
Manish Sarda
First of all China does not import anything from India and seeing sluggish markets on the export side, but I think the Indian demand looks to be good once the season sets in, and we will see some pullback maybe in January and February.
December basically will be a slack period because of holidays.
But from January onwards we’ll see some pullback in demand as well.
Tarang Bahnushali
Sir, I think last concall we had mentioned that South African power prices were going up and we will see some impact over there.
So, are we witnessing some production cuts over there or still supplies are normal?
Manish Sarda
South Africa predominantly produces ferrochrome and there are two plants which produce basically manganese alloys.
Because of the power price increase we have seen shutdowns in trans alloys and also in the met alloys plant of South 32.
And they out of their five furnaces they are only running one furnace so four furnaces have been shut down there as well.
What has happened, in India also we have seen a lot of shutdowns as subsidies are going away now in states like Andhra and it’s only a matter of time when the steel demand picks up and the steel production picks up.
We’ll see some growth coming in.
Tarang Bahnushali
Okay.
Sir on the hydro power plant we were looking to raise our capacity.
So, where are we on that front?
Pankaj Sarda
No second unit of the 25 megawatt we will start work on the project by the end of current financial year it will take three, three and a half years to complete the project.
And this one project is already nearing completion as you are aware of.
Moderator · Conference Operator
Thank you.
The next question is from the line of the Dhaval Shah from Girik Capital.
Please go ahead.
Dhaval Shah
So this Sikkim is under Madhya Bharat Power Corp Limited, am I correct?
Sarda Energy & Minerals Limited November 13, 2019
Pankaj Sarda
Yes.
Dhaval Shah
So from FY21 roughly what sort of numbers should we model in from this company and what will be the tax rate?
Padam Kumar Jain
Taxation will not be there for the initial years.
Normal there is no exemption norm for any, all the income tax incentives have been withdrawn so normally it will be subject to normal tax rate but because of higher depreciation and tax incentives so it will take time to have the tax outgo.
Dhaval Shah
Okay, so in terms of the operating profit, how much should we build in?
Padam Kumar Jain
Ultimately, it will depend finally what price is approved by the regulator.
Dhaval Shah
So, assuming whatever estimate you have which you have been sharing regularly?
Padam Kumar Jain
Assuming the say generation of 390, 400 million and may safely assuming the tariff of INR5.50 you can consider that way.
Dhaval Shah
Okay.
And sir the expansion you mentioned is it in the same company?
Padam Kumar Jain
No, it’s in different company.
Chhattisgarh hydropower power LLP where we already have one plant.
Dhaval Shah
Correct that Gullu plant 24 megawatt.
Padam Kumar Jain
Now here we are putting up one more unit.
Dhaval Shah
Okay, fine so that will come after another three years now?
Padam Kumar Jain
Yes.
Dhaval Shah
Okay.
So the cash flow will start in Madhya Bharat and they also are coming at another company.
So how do we get those cash flows in our holding company and then distribute them.
So what is the, because a large chunk of cash flow will start accruing given the size of the project.
So what is the thought process of the management on that?
Padam Kumar Jain
No, so far as Madhya Bharat Power Corporation is concerned initially it will go in servicing it’s own basically obligations.
Surplus that maybe used even for say creation of DSRA or maybe reduction of the debt in the Madhya Bharat itself so that is independent power and Chhattisgarh hydro definitely whatever generation is coming in that will be used for expansion project.
Sarda Energy & Minerals Limited November 13, 2019
Dhaval Shah
Okay.
So cash flow will remain within that company?
Padam Kumar Jain
Within that company.
Dhaval Shah
Okay.
Padam Kumar Jain
At least for next three to five years.
Dhaval Shah
Okay, after five years correct.
And how much of Madhya Bharat is owned by Sarda Energy 80%?
Pankaj Sarda
Somewhere yes.
Dhaval Shah
Somewhere 80%.
And which quarter do we say this numbers coming in, that will be in the second quarter or third quarter because as per the rains it will depend right?
Padam Kumar Jain
Yes, second quarter.
Dhaval Shah
Okay So Q2 FY21 you will see the numbers of the Sikkim plant?
Padam Kumar Jain
Yes.
Dhaval Shah
Correct.
And the trial runs you said you will start from March?
Padam Kumar Jain
It won’t take much of the time in case of hydropower project plant and commercial does not take much of the time.
It may be of few days.
Dhaval Shah
Okay, but now we are very much certain that we will see revenues coming in second quarter FY21?
Padam Kumar Jain
Yes.
Dhaval Shah
Got it.
And sir any thoughts on the demerger of the creating a separate entity for, which will house all our power assets any thoughts on that?
Padam Kumar Jain
Yes, that will be only basically after completion and commissioning of this project.
Dhaval Shah
After commissioning of this Sikkim project?
Padam Kumar Jain
Yes.
Dhaval Shah
So after that you will think, so that will house the power business in one company?
Padam Kumar Jain
Yes.
Sarda Energy & Minerals Limited November 13, 2019
Moderator · Conference Operator
Thank you.
The next question is from the line of Ayush B from Equitas Investment.
Please go ahead.
Ayush B
Sir so about on a pellet 2 lakh tons clearance have you received it?
Padam Kumar Jain
Not yet received, it is in process.
Ayush B
So when do we expect because I guess it has been already delayed quite a bit?
Pankaj Sarda
No, because of the recent NGT order.
They have requested all the state governments to review the same and give their thought process on it.
So because of that all the environment processes in the states and India are delayed.
The delay is just because of the new order of NGT and the concerns that the NGT has raised.
So we are already in touch with MOEF and all the concerned people.
They don’t have any clue by when all the states will give.
It looks like there is a delay of three months.
Ayush B
Okay.
And sir on ferro alloy subsidiary.
So what was the production increase numbers during the quarter?
Padam Kumar Jain
Pardon?
Ayush B
Subsidy production and sales number for ferro alloy?
Padam Kumar Jain
For the quarter?
Ayush B
Yes, for the quarter because earlier you used to give a breakup of standalone and subsidiary for ferro alloys?
Padam Kumar Jain
Quantity you’re asking for?
Ayush B
Yes, sales quantity right.
Padam Kumar Jain
About 17,000
Ayush B
17,000 is the sales?
Padam Kumar Jain
These are the metal.
Ayush B
So it is the sales volume or the production volume?
Padam Kumar Jain
Sales volume.
Ayush B
And production would be?
Sarda Energy & Minerals Limited November 13, 2019
Padam Kumar Jain
Production is also almost maybe slightly lesser almost same level.
Ayush B
Okay.
So Sarda Metal ferro alloys have performed decently well during the quarter like the EBIT margins have been stable.
So, in spite of the realizations coming down so, any particular reason for that?
Padam Kumar Jain
No, basically more or less there is some improvement in the performance definitely.
Consistently they’ve been supplying so have pipeline of orders also there.
Ayush B
Right.
So, this is complete export oriented unit right?
Padam Kumar Jain
Not completely export oriented, a substantial part in going in the domestic market also.
Ayush B
So, who are our domestic market clients?
Padam Kumar Jain
In domestic we are supplying to even steel authority is one of the major players.
That is one player otherwise there are others who also we are supplying, we are supplying even to Bhushan Steel which now Tata’s they have taken.
Electro Steel is one of our buyers so we have been supplying to different clients.
We supply to Jindal Steel is there all big players are there we have been supplying to all the big players, Essar Steel is there.
Ayush B
Okay.
So, in ferro alloy as a whole what would be our export contribution and domestic contribution like percentage wise?
Padam Kumar Jain
Domestic contribution might be around 50-50 on ferro alloy.
Slightly higher than 50 in domestic in totality if you see.
Ayush B
Okay.
So for ferro alloy sector as a whole which has been facing pressure from the past one or two quarters because the realization are significant have come down and even our raw material prices have come down.
So, when do we think things should pick up in the sector?
Padam Kumar Jain
Sector pickup?
Ayush B
Yes, like the demand growth.
Manish Sarda
As I said, I think we will see a little bit of pullback in January, February.
Before that, I don’t think so there will be any pull up because December being a holiday season.
Most of the people are already covered.
So we’ll see some pull back in prices and probably price corrections in January and February.
Ayush B
Okay, so a manganese or the raw material where do we source it from?
Sarda Energy & Minerals Limited November 13, 2019
Manish Sarda
We are sourcing from Australia, we are sourcing from South Africa we are sourcing from little bit, we are sourcing from Brazil.
Ayush B
Okay, so completely imported.
Pankaj Sarda
Yes.
And we are also sourcing from MOIL in domestic sector.
We have a good mix of raw material.
Ayush B
Right.
So now that MOIL has reduced its price significantly by 20, 25% do we expect to benefit from them in the quarters going ahead?
Manish Sarda
Selling prices have also come down.
So, as manganese prices come down and more or less we are seeing a little bit further reduction from MOIL in the next month we are seeing another 5% or 6% maybe reduction in some manganese ore grades not in all grades, but in some grades.
Ayush B
Okay.
On our hydropower side, so what was the EBITDA that we generated from a 24 megawatt and 4.8 megawatt hydropower plants in H1?
Padam Kumar Jain
We have generated EBITDA of about 16 crore.
Ayush B
From both plants together 24 plus the 4.8?
Padam Kumar Jain
24 megawatt.
Ayush B
And the 5 megawatt?
Padam Kumar Jain
I am talking about this 24 megawatt.
Ayush B
16 crore.
Padam Kumar Jain
We have an EBITDA of about 3.5 crore.
Ayush B
Okay, so on the 5 megawatt?
Padam Kumar Jain
Yes.
Ayush B
So total would be around 20 crore?
Padam Kumar Jain
Yes.
Ayush B
And sir our Sikkim plant so do we expect the EBITDA margin, the overall realization in our Sikkim plant to be better compared to our Chhattisgarh plant?
Sarda Energy & Minerals Limited November 13, 2019
Padam Kumar Jain
Yes, realization should be more or less slightly better than because now we will be in two years gap is there so then whatever price increase is there that benefit will be available for the Sikkim plant.
Ayush B
Correct.
So for the Sikkim plant can I assume for the full year EBITDA generation of 150 crore?
Padam Kumar Jain
Yes, comfortably.
Ayush B
Okay.
So also going ahead almost 200 crore EBITDA will be generated from our hydropower plant right?
Padam Kumar Jain
Yes.
Moderator · Conference Operator
Thank you.
The next question is from the line of Sunil Jain from Nirmal Bang.
Please go ahead.
Sunil Jain
Sir this is again related to your Sikkim plant which is expected to start.
Sir how confident are you to get the rate of over Rs.5 in that power plant.
My question is coming from like when the solar and all are available at 2.5 why utility will buy at such high rate?
Padam Kumar Jain
If you are aware government has separately carved out hydropower obligation.
There was a time when solar was selling at Rs.12, still other power was available at Rs.3 and still solar was being purchased at Rs.12.
So its’ a totally different segment and with the increased share of the solar in the grid system, the requirement of hydropower has gone up because hydro only will fill up the gap during the peak hours.
Solar will be out during evening peak hours, thermal will be day and night more or less it will be at consistent load.
So, whatever gap will be there because of the solar going out of the system hydro is the only thing which will fill up this gap.
So considering all these factors government has come out with a separate obligation for purchase of hydropower.
So, irrespective of other power cost there will be a separate segment for hydropower.
Sunil Jain
Okay.
So any recent deal which has happened at these rates, which you can?
Padam Kumar Jain
I think after this notification of this renewable energy for large hydropower projects no deal has been signed to my notice and prior to that renewable energy projects last we have signed a INR 5.21 two years back.
Two years back that price were also based on that, I think the CERC has changed most of the coding back to that working also it will be more than Rs.5.50.
Sunil Jain
Okay.
And in our other plant of 25 megawatts of hydropower, that is up to how long is the PPA, for how many years?
Padam Kumar Jain
I think that is for 35 years.
Sarda Energy & Minerals Limited November 13, 2019
Sunil Jain
Okay, 35 year.
And here also we will be targeting long term PPA only?
Padam Kumar Jain
Yes, definitely at least for the 15 to 20 years minimum size.
Sunil Jain
And how is the seasonality in Sikkim for this hydropower?
Padam Kumar Jain
Seasonality will be there, but the full rain period will be higher than Chhattisgarh.
But definitely, post October, November there will be fall and then after March only, until March, April generation will be lower.
In Chhattisgarh if you get the three to four months of the full generation there you may get five to six months.
Sunil Jain
And you mean to say this June to September where you want to start the plant so that will be a peak period?
Padam Kumar Jain
June to October.
Sunil Jain
June to October is the peak period?
Moderator · Conference Operator
Thank you.
The next question is from the line of Anurag Patil from Roha Asset Managers.
Please go ahead.
Anurag Patil
Sir can I have EBITDA per ton figures for the steel business for current quarter and last quarter and similar quarter last year?
Padam Kumar Jain
EBITDA definitely if you see EBITDA on the pellet side it was somewhere in the range of 1200 during the quarter two.
And for sponge iron it is somewhere in the range of Rs.1000 in that EBITDA was almost negligible it was more or less at par because billet prices have gone down, recently it is improved now.
Then wire rod EBITDA was in the range of 2000, wire 1500, and silico manganese in the range of 4000 to 5000.
Moderator · Conference Operator
Thank you.
The next question is from the line of Siddarth Oberoi from Prudent Equity.
Please go ahead.
Siddarth Oberoi
So, what is the breakeven of the Sikkim hydro project?
Padam Kumar Jain
Breakeven if we get somewhere about Rs.4.50 plus we will be able to breakeven.
Siddarth Oberoi
The number of years, how much time would that take?
Padam Kumar Jain
We have taken the loan for 15 years.
Siddarth Oberoi
No which is okay, but there was a cost overrun in this project right?
Sarda Energy & Minerals Limited November 13, 2019
Padam Kumar Jain
Yes.
Siddarth Oberoi
So, my point is when will this start accusing profit after tax, when will that start to accrue?
Padam Kumar Jain
It should be able to start generating profit after tax maybe after two years.
Siddarth Oberoi
After two years?
Padam Kumar Jain
Yes.
Siddarth Oberoi
And when does the repayment starts?
Repayment of loan?
Padam Kumar Jain
Repayment start after one year of moratorium.
Siddarth Oberoi
Okay, so basically after two years you are expecting that after tax it will be positive?
Padam Kumar Jain
Yes, but depreciation is there for servicing of the debt that should not be a problem.
Siddarth Oberoi
Yes, but can you quantify how much would be the depreciation from let’s say the first financial year?
Padam Kumar Jain
Depreciation can straight away maybe I think it should be somewhere about 50 crore.
Siddarth Oberoi
And what about the interest cost?
Padam Kumar Jain
Interest cost will depend basically what happens after completion of project totally it is refinanced at a different rate.
Project construction period interest it should be refinanced somewhere about 9 to 10% somewhere in between.
Siddarth Oberoi
Okay, because in the last concall you have said that?
Padam Kumar Jain
90 crore will be basically interest in the first year.
Siddarth Oberoi
So 90 and 50, 140 goes into depreciation and interest cost right?
Padam Kumar Jain
Yes.
Siddarth Oberoi
But then the rest will be PBT?
Padam Kumar Jain
Pardon?
Siddarth Oberoi
So actually what I am trying to understand is that, you are going to generate about 180 crore EBIT from this project?
Sarda Energy & Minerals Limited November 13, 2019
Pankaj Sarda
Yes, more than that it should be more than that.
Siddarth Oberoi
Okay. let say 200 crore of which 50 crore goes into servicing of depreciation and 90 goes into?
Padam Kumar Jain
It depends on the revenue maybe 180 crore of the EBITDA.
Siddarth Oberoi
Okay, 180 is the EBIT and then from this you are talking about 90 crore as interest cost, 50 crore as depreciation, now 40 will be left as a PBT?
Padam Kumar Jain
Yes.
Siddarth Oberoi
So there will be a tax in the first year right?
Padam Kumar Jain
No, means basically income tax rates are different, as income tax purpose there are different rates.
Siddarth Oberoi
So 40 crore can be accrued from the first year as PBT right?
Moderator · Conference Operator
Thank you.
The next question is from the line of the Dhaval Shah from Girik Capital.
Please go ahead.
Dhaval Shah
Sir the interim cost should be around 50 crore, we don’t’ have debt even if you count it at 10%?
Padam Kumar Jain
It will be debt of 900 crore.
Dhaval Shah
Okay, so 900 crore is debt in that Madhya Bharat?
Padam Kumar Jain
Yes, will be on completion not today.
Dhaval Shah
Okay.
And I didn’t understand the pervious participant was asking that PBT will come so do you think from income tax point of view it won’t be that positive what do you say?
Padam Kumar Jain
Yes, initially you get extra in income tax, depreciation, etc.
Dhaval Shah
Okay.
So there won’t be a tax outgo?
Padam Kumar Jain
There may be slight tax outgo on the MAT side, there may be some MAT that also depends how finally these structures and there may be initially maybe for six months or so you may not be able refinance so initially they may be in the first year there might be some extra interest cost.
It always happens in case of hydropower project so these refinance at different rates after completion and that has been.
Sarda Energy & Minerals Limited November 13, 2019
Dhaval Shah
So from first year 100 crore cash flow will be there, post paying your interest your cash flow will be more than 100 crore?
Padam Kumar Jain
If it’s not 100 it will be 85 or 80 it’s fine.
Dhaval Shah
Okay.
And what will be our first installment amount of the principal amount in the second year?
Padam Kumar Jain
That we have to check, would request you to come offline, immediately I don’t have the figures.
If we distribute that in 15 years and that is also structured so it won’t be material.
Dhaval Shah
Okay.
So there won’t be much debt in this company.
So debt repayment will be there?
Padam Kumar Jain
Yes, debt will keep on reducing.
Moderator · Conference Operator
Thank you.
As there are no further questions, I now hand the conference over to Mr. Pankaj Sarda for closing comments.
Pankaj Sarda
Thanks a lot everyone for patient hearing.
So as you know because of the extended monsoon both the hydro projects will achieve the target production capacity.
And in fact the figure that are coming.
It shows that there will be record production in both the projects.
And looking at the steel scenario, post monsoon things look better in the coming quarter.
Thanks a lot.
Moderator · Conference Operator
Thank you.
Ladies and gentlemen on behalf of Sarda Energy & Minerals Limited that concludes this conference.
Thank you for joining us and you may now disconnect your lines.